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Today in lab we did two different computer games (/experiments). We tried the "3 doors of serendip" game and the "sheep wolf predation" game. The sheep game seemed pretty straight forward, and the results were as expected. There were 3 general things: sheep, wolves, and grass. Wolves eat sheep, sheep eat grass. If you change certain variables (like amount of sheep, reproductive rate of wolves, etc) it affects the populations of the things. We played with this applet for a few minutes, but we were more interested in the three doors of serendip applet.

First, the screen showed us three doors, one labeled "1", one labeled "2" and one labeled "3." When you click one, the computer automatically eliminates one of the other two doors and says that there is no money behind the door it eliminated. Then, it gives you the option to "stay" with the door you chose in the beginning, or "switch" to the door that the computer did not eliminate. Either way you choose, you have the potential to lose money or win it. When we alternated between "stay" and "switch," it seemed pretty random; we both won and lost money. However, the game said that there was a pattern and we wanted to figure out what it was. After extensive discussion, testing, and help from Professor Grobstein, we learned that there was a 2/3 probability of winning money if we "switched" and a 1/3 probability of winning if we "stayed." Professor Grobstein gave us two "stories": The first story was more verbal and conceptual, while the second involved numbers. It was interesting for us because neither of us like math, but the number story made a lot more sense!

Lili, Terrible2s