Climate

Guardian Australia is highlighting the plight of our endangered native species during an election campaign that is ignoring broken environment laws and rapidly declining ecosystems

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Australia’s most skilled aerial mammal, the yellow-bellied glider, is on an “inexorable slide” to extinction as global heating creates more extreme bushfires that are robbing the species of the food and tree hollows it relies on to survive.

Thanks to large parachutes of skin stretching from their wrists to their ankles, yellow-bellied gliders can travel up to 140 metres in a single jump, the furthest of any Australian mammal, including the larger and better known endangered greater glider.

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In Washington, where salmon is a multibillion dollar industry, government staff terminations and budget freezes may put salmon production at risk.

Amazon, Google and Microsoft are building datacentres in water-scarce parts of five continents

Amazon, Microsoft and Google are operating datacentres that use vast amounts of water in some of the world’s driest areas and are building many more, an investigation by SourceMaterial and the Guardian has found.

With Donald Trump pledging to support them, the three technology giants are planning hundreds of datacentres in the US and across the globe, with a potentially huge impact on populations already living with water scarcity.

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Last month, I was invited to speak at a press conference alongside Wisconsinites from across the state for the launch of the Climate Accountability Act. At just sixty words, it’s a simple but powerful bill with the potential to make our communities healthier, advance racial equity, and drive our state’s economy forward: 

In the 2025-26 legislative session, the legislature shall pass legislation creating a viable plan to reduce carbon emissions in this state by 52 percent by 2030 and creating a viable plan for achieving carbon neutral emissions in this state by 2050. Any plan enacted under this subsection shall maximize the impact of the plan on improving economic and racial equity.  

The bill, introduced by State Representative Supreme Moore Omokunde and State Senator Chris Larson, creates an enforceable timeline with specific objectives, allowing flexibility for discussions of the various technology and policy approaches to come later. With nearly 20 legislative cosponsors and a broad coalition of partners—including the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS)—signed on in support, Wisconsin has the unique chance to prove that states can, and should, take the lead in preparing communities for a more resilient future. 

From technical details to personal stakes 

As a Senior Energy Analyst with UCS, my work typically involves diving deep into the details of specific pieces of regulation and legislation in Wisconsin and surrounding states: working on comments about archaic electric metering requirements in Wisconsin, writing testimony about interconnection rules in Michigan, or modeling the role of energy storage in Illinois’ clean energy future. 

So, when I first heard of the Climate Accountability Act—at a mere two sentences—I could have brushed it off as too high-level. Call me when we get to the nitty gritty! But in reality, as I pointed out in my remarks at the press conference launch, I have a huge stake in Wisconsin’s climate—this state is my home. 

I came to Madison ten years ago to pursue a master’s in electrical engineering. Eventually, I met my wife, bought a home, and welcomed a son into the world who is now three years old. Madison is our home. That’s why I believe the Climate Accountability Act is a critical step for Wisconsin, especially given all the ways the federal government is trying to move us backward  on addressing climate change.

The cost of inaction 

In my own comments, I highlighted some of the ways that the lack of a climate plan affects Wisconsinites, drawing on my colleagues’ research. I highlighted the UCS analysis of the negative health and economic impacts of new fossil gas plants that We Energies is proposing in Oak Creek and Paris, WI.  

My colleagues recently led an analysis showing that pollution from these proposed plants could result in nearly $6 billion of health and economic costs over their thirty year lifespan. That’s a big, scary number—but it translates to an even scarier reality: nearly 400 premature mortalities, 300 ER visits, and 900 new cases of asthma. 

Since the press conference, our Wisconsin coalition partners RMI released additional analysis about the proposed Oak Creek plant finding that it will cost ratepayers more than $1.25 billion in higher energy costs compared to cleaner alternatives. 

To underscore the negative impacts of fossil fuels on our grid, I also pointed to key research around resilience. In a study we completed last year, we found that during five major power outages around the U.S., gas plants were more likely to fail while resources like wind and solar helped keep the lights on. 

While the Climate Accountability Act doesn’t directly address the proposed plants, the setting in which the utility proposed them is important to understand. Despite being one of the first states to enact a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requiring 10% of the state’s energy to come from renewables, the requirement expired in 2015 with no meaningful updates since. And unlike most of our neighbors in the Midwest, Wisconsin is also unique in lacking a requirement for a detailed, public, forward-looking planning process known as integrated resource planning. 

Within this context, Wisconsin utilities are unique in their dogged pursuit of new gas capacity—EIA data indicates that natural gas made up only 7% of U.S. planned capacity additions in 2025, with the bulk of these new plants planned for states without a current clean energy standard (the proposed Wisconsin plants won’t show up in the EIA data unless they are approved by the state). With a robust climate plan, Wisconsin utilities would have to look beyond their legacy preference for fossil fuels and consider cleaner, cheaper, and more reliable alternatives.  

Climate change threatens Wisconsin’s future 

While I focused on the energy sector in my comments, the impacts of climate change—and the importance of the climate accountability act—are far-reaching for Wisconsin and other Midwest states. 

Our 2019 Killer Heat report found that without action on climate change, the number of days each year with a heat index over 100°F will jump 783%, from six to 53 in the Midwest. The impact will be felt most acutely by outdoor workers and vulnerable populations including children, the elderly, and those who are pregnant. The report also highlights how centuries of social and economic discrimination have increased the exposure of BIPOC communities and individuals to the risks of heat-related illnesses and injuries. 

In 2020, we highlighted research finding that the combined effects of rising temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations lead to reduced yields from corn and soybean crops in the Midwest, harming local economies. 

That’s just a handful of examples focused on the Midwest—at a higher level we know that climate change will also make winter storms worse, increase the risk of wildfires, and lead to more floods. 

And, as the sponsors of the Climate Accountability Act recognized with the inclusion of the critical second sentence, these impacts will most acutely affect environmental justice communities and others who have been historically marginalized. Any plan addressing climate change in Wisconsin must focus on addressing these historic harms. 

Source: Matt Brusky/Citizen Action “The fierce urgency of now” 

In his opening remarks at the press conference, the bill’s sponsor in the Assembly, Representative Supreme Moore-Omokunde, quoted the words of Martin Luther King Jr while reflecting on “the fierce urgency of now.”  I’ll close with his call to action: 

“We cannot continue to burn fossil fuels with no plans to seek alternatives that are best for urban and rural Wisconsinites. We must develop a plan now that centers racial and class equality, and gets us on a path to net zero.”

Click here to find out more about the bill and how you can support it. 

To help the struggling coal industry, President Trump used his executive authority to try to keep aging plants alive and burn more coal for electricity.

A new project by the Climate desk aims to recognize local climate and environmental solutions in all 50 states.

Who would be a young person? Not me!

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The moves include loosening environmental rules, but it is unclear how much they can help reverse the sharp decline in coal power over the last two decades.

Surangel Whipps Jr says he would be ‘deeply disappointed’ if attempt were abandoned under Coalition

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The president of Palau has strongly backed an Australian bid to host a UN climate conference on behalf of the Pacific, arguing that it would boost regional solidarity and clean energy investment and he would be “deeply disappointed” if the attempt were abandoned under the Coalition.

Speaking in Sydney, Surangel Whipps Jr stressed he did not want to offer a view on the Australian election but said leaders should heed the results of a Lowy Institute survey that suggested 70% of the population supported Labor’s proposal for the country hosting the Cop31 climate summit late next year.

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While the Democratic Republic of Congo reels from a new rebel offensive in the east, its capital in the west, Kinshasa, grapples with deadly floods.

President Trump’s tariff polices have sent oil prices falling, which may push energy companies to reconsider their plans to drill.

With rising temperatures, the atmosphere can hold more moisture, meaning precipitation has a tendency to fall at more extreme levels.

¡Feliz Semana del Agua!

¿Has visto alguna vez la Sierra Nevada de California desde el Valle de San Joaquín a principios de primavera en un día despejado? Cuando la Sierra tiene nieve y la calidad del aire nos permite verla desde aquí, esa vista no tiene igual.

Cada año en esta época, cuando miro la Sierra desde el Valle, sé que si veo poca nieve será un año seco. Cuando hay bastante nieve como ahora, sé que habrá menos dificultades con el suministro de agua durante el verano, pero puede haber inundaciones. Las inundaciones pueden ser causadas por lluvia sobre nieve y por altas temperaturas primaverales que derriten la nieve más rápido y antes de lo habitual. El cambio climático está provocando un deshielo más temprano y rápido.

Para nosotros, los apasionados del agua, esta vista es más que un hermoso paisaje. El manto de nieve es nuestra reserva de agua principal en California después del agua subterránea. Esta es una foto de la parte sur de la Sierra Nevada en 2023 vista desde el condado de Tulare. Foto por Angel S. Fernandez-Bou.

El estudio de niveles de nieve de la semana pasada confirmó lo que vemos en las montañas. El Departamento de Recursos Hídricos de California informó que el manto de nieve del estado midió el 96% del promedio en su punto máximo el 1 de abril. Hay matices, ya que el norte recibió el 120% y el sur solo el 84%. Podemos decir que estas son noticias relativamente buenas, pero también debemos recordar que los últimos tres años de manto de nieve promedio fueron seguidos de una severa sequía desde 2020 hasta 2022, el período de tres años más seco registrado en California.

Estos extremos climáticos y los cambios meteorológicos bruscos que experimentamos aquí son cada vez más frecuentes con el cambio climático, y es por eso que necesitamos planificar tanto para las inundaciones como para el próximo período seco que podría estar a la vuelta de la esquina.

Manto de nieve de la Sierra Nevada (norte, centro y sur) presentado como porcentaje de nieve comparado con el promedio histórico el 1 de abril. Mientras que el norte tiene más que el promedio histórico, el sur tiene menos. A escala estatal, el manto de nieve es aproximadamente el promedio histórico, pero habrá más agua en el norte y menos en el sur que el promedio.

En esta Semana del Agua 2025 tenemos que recapacitar sobre cómo prepararnos para los extremos climáticos modernizando nuestra gestión del agua. En años anteriores, el deshielo rápido ha provocado inundaciones y preocupaciones sobre la integridad estructural de algunas presas. Por ejemplo, en 2017, casi 200,000 residentes tuvieron que ser evacuados aguas abajo de Oroville debido a la probabilidad de un colapso después de un evento de lluvia sobre nieve.

Daño en el aliviadero de Oroville en 2017. Fuente: DWR

Por eso es vital que el estado esté trabajando con la comunidad científica en una nueva estrategia de gestión para reducir el riesgo de inundaciones para las comunidades río abajo y beneficiar los suministros de agua durante los períodos secos. Esta estrategia se llama FIRO, por sus siglas en ingles que significa “operaciones de embalses informadas por pronósticos meteorológicos”, y es un nuevo enfoque que puede ayudarnos a manejar de manera más flexible los extremos del agua.

Numerosas presas en California están diseñadas con un doble propósito: disponer de capacidad para capturar aguas de crecida y prevenir inundaciones, mientras simultáneamente funcionan como reservorios para el almacenamiento hídrico. Tradicionalmente, sin FIRO, estas presas se operan siguiendo normas rígidas basadas en el calendario, que determinan el volumen de agua que debe mantenerse en el embalse según la época del año.

Lo que FIRO aporta es permitir a los gestores de presas utilizar pronósticos meteorológicos para tomar decisiones más inteligentes sobre los niveles de agua. Pueden liberar agua preventivamente antes de tormentas significativas para crear capacidad adicional, o conservarla cuando los pronósticos no indican riesgos inminentes de precipitación. Esta aproximación flexible optimiza la gestión hídrica en ambos frentes: minimiza los riesgos de inundación y maximiza la disponibilidad del recurso.

En esencia, FIRO posibilita que los operadores conserven más agua en los embalses para utilizaciones futuras. Es decir, FIRO elimina ese “miedo a perderse oportunidades” (FOMO) respecto al agua que podría haberse almacenado si se contara con mejores herramientas de predicción.

FIRO: de California al mundo

Érase una vez (y persiste aún) una megasequía en California que alcanzó su punto crítico durante el período de severa escasez hídrica entre 2012 y 2016. Los entusiastas del agua de California tal vez sepan que esta sequía fue el catalizador que impulsó la Ley de Gestión Sostenible del Agua Subterránea (SGMA), la cual a su vez evidenció la necesidad de reusar estratégicamente cerca de un millón de acres de tierras agrícolas irrigadas en el estado. En aquel momento, los operadores de embalses observaban con preocupación cómo se liberaba agua de valor incalculable desde las presas como medida preventiva contra inundaciones, incluso cuando no existían pronósticos de lluvia ni acumulación de nieve por derretir. Esta situación exigía una solución.

El proyecto pionero de FIRO se implementó en el Lago Mendocino, en la cuenca del Río Ruso al norte de California. Allí convergió un equipo multidisciplinario de científicos, gestores hídricos e ingenieros que colaboraron con el Cuerpo de Ingenieros del Ejército, la Administración Nacional Oceánica y Atmosférica (NOAA), la Institución Scripps de Oceanografía y el Departamento de Recursos Hídricos de California para desarrollar una solución innovadora. El elemento decisivo fueron los avances en pronósticos hidrometeorológicos, que permiten predecir con mayor exactitud la temperatura, las precipitaciones y los caudales de los ríos. Este conocimiento científico sobre clima, meteorología e hidrología se perfecciona continuamente gracias a la labor de agencias federales como NOAA y NASA, en estrecha colaboración con la comunidad científica.

La precisión de los pronósticos meteorológicos ha experimentado avances significativos en décadas recientes. Actualmente, alcanzamos una fiabilidad extraordinaria en previsiones a tres días. Con mayor investigación y el desarrollo de supercomputadoras más potentes, ampliaremos nuestra capacidad para realizar pronósticos con mayor anticipación, lo que permitirá gestionar de manera óptima las operaciones de nuestros embalses.

A partir de esta experiencia inicial, metodologías similares a FIRO han surgido en diversas regiones del país. En Seattle, por ejemplo, se prevé lograr un mejor equilibrio entre la protección contra inundaciones y la disponibilidad hídrica mediante la implementación de FIRO en la presa Howard Hanson de la cuenca del Río Verde. En la región del Medio Oeste, el Lago Erie cuenta con LEOFS (Sistema de Pronóstico Operativo del Lago Erie) para administrar eficientemente los niveles de agua afectados por variaciones estacionales y el cambio climático. Por su parte, la Autoridad del Valle de Tennessee también ha adoptado este enfoque de gestión de inundaciones para afrontar eventos de precipitación extrema, particularmente ante la creciente frecuencia de huracanes y otros fenómenos climáticos extremos que afectan el sur del país.

Esta revolución en la gestión hídrica trasciende fronteras. Fuera de Estados Unidos, países como Australia y Japón, así como la región mediterránea, están incorporando progresivamente los pronósticos meteorológicos en la planificación y operación de sus sistemas de embalses.

Los beneficios transformadores de implementar FIRO

El poder de FIRO reside en su capacidad para revolucionar múltiples aspectos de la gestión hídrica. En primer lugar, optimiza la disponibilidad del agua precisamente cuando más la necesitan las comunidades, el sector agrícola y los ecosistemas. Al conservar el agua en los embalses hasta que los pronósticos meteorológicos señalen una auténtica necesidad de prevención de inundaciones, aseguramos reservas hídricas vitales para nuestros característicos veranos mediterráneos.

Este sistema representa un salto cualitativo en la gestión de inundaciones respecto a los métodos tradicionales basados en calendarios con fechas predeterminadas. Con FIRO, las decisiones de liberación de agua se fundamentan en la convergencia de pronósticos meteorológicos y modelos hidrológicos (la ciencia hidrometeorológica) que identifican riesgos reales de inundación, superando así la dependencia de meras estadísticas históricas.

Una ventaja significativa del sistema FIRO es su capacidad para incrementar el almacenamiento hídrico sin requerir construcciones adicionales. En un contexto donde los nuevos proyectos de presas enfrentan crecientes obstáculos ambientales, sociales y económicos, FIRO permite extraer el máximo rendimiento de la infraestructura ya existente mediante una operación más inteligente. Adicionalmente, la precisión que proporcionan los pronósticos hidrometeorológicos facilita la programación de descargas ambientales estratégicas, garantizando que se atiendan las necesidades ecológicas de los ríos y las especias acuáticas en momentos precisos.

Por último, FIRO constituye una herramienta fundamental para fortalecer la resiliencia frente a sequías, una preocupación cada vez más acuciante conforme el cambio climático intensifica los períodos secos en numerosas regiones. Al conservar agua durante los intervalos sin riesgo de inundación dentro de la estación húmeda, tanto comunidades como agricultores pueden asegurar reservas hídricas estratégicas para afrontar episodios de sequía que, de otro modo, agotarían rápidamente los recursos disponibles y provocarían restricciones severas en el consumo.

Desafíos en el horizonte de implementación

A pesar de sus evidentes beneficios, la implementación de FIRO presenta diversos desafíos que requieren consideración. Si bien la fiabilidad de los pronósticos meteorológicos es notablemente alta, especialmente en la Costa Oeste de Estados Unidos, no todas las regiones del país o del mundo cuentan con este nivel de precisión. Siempre hay un grado de incertidumbre inherente a cualquier predicción. Aunque la exactitud de los pronósticos mejora anualmente, los operadores de embalses deben contemplar ese margen—pequeño pero existente—de incertidumbre al tomar decisiones sobre la gestión de riesgos por inundación.

Para abordar esta incertidumbre, resulta fundamental el uso de pronósticos probabilísticos y sistemas de ensambles. En situaciones donde la prudencia dicta liberar volúmenes de agua superiores a los óptimos para la protección contra inundaciones, existe la posibilidad de mitigar este impacto canalizando estos excedentes hacia proyectos de recarga de acuíferos. Estos sistemas de recarga no solo proporcionan almacenamiento subterráneo adicional, sino que también contribuyen a contrarrestar problemas de subsidencia del terreno, proteger nuestros acuíferos para que no se sequen nuestros pozos domésticos, preservar ecosistemas dependientes de aguas subterráneas y prevenir la intrusión salina en zonas costeras.

FIRO enfrenta, además, barreras técnicas e institucionales significativas. Desde la perspectiva técnica, requiere conocimientos especializados en meteorología, hidrología y gestión de embalses—competencias que no siempre están disponibles en los organismos responsables de la administración hídrica. En el plano institucional, implica una transformación cultural que abandone las operaciones basadas en calendarios predeterminados para adoptar un modelo de toma de decisiones dinámico fundamentado en pronósticos, lo que puede generar resistencia en organizaciones habituadas a metodologías convencionales. Si bien estas transiciones transformadoras requieren tiempo, es alentador que tanto el Cuerpo de Ingenieros del Ejército como la Oficina de Reclamación estén respaldando activamente las iniciativas FIRO.

Las marcadas diferencias climáticas, topográficas y de características de embalses entre distintas regiones imposibilitan la simple replicación del modelo FIRO de una cuenca a otra. Cada implementación requiere adaptaciones específicas basadas en condiciones locales. Esta diversidad subraya la importancia de integrar a las comunidades locales en los procesos decisorios, pues frecuentemente poseen un conocimiento invaluable sobre las dinámicas de la cuenca y tienen intereses legítimos en la gestión de los embalses que deben ser considerados para garantizar una implementación exitosa.

El futuro pertenece a FIRO

Los avances en ciencia climática y supercomputación continuarán perfeccionando los pronósticos meteorológicos. La inteligencia artificial (IA) está potenciando este enfoque, incrementando la efectividad de FIRO. La integración de IA en modelos meteorológicos augura una precisión sin precedentes, facilitando decisiones más acertadas sobre almacenamiento y liberación de agua. En un futuro próximo, las previsiones meteorológicas de alta precisión podrían extenderse de días a semanas, otorgando a los operadores de embalses un margen temporal más amplio para prepararse ante eventos extremos.

Conforme el cambio climático intensifica tanto las inundaciones como las sequías extremas, FIRO y metodologías afines se vuelven indispensables para la gestión hídrica moderna, como reconoce la legislación reciente en California mediante el Programa de Investigación y Mejora de Pronósticos de Ríos Atmosféricos: Habilitando la Adaptación Climática a través de Operaciones de Embalses Informadas por Pronósticos y Resiliencia ante Peligros (AR/FIRO). La ley AB30 (2023) actualizó el marco normativo para incorporar explícitamente a FIRO como herramienta estratégica en la gestión de la escasez hídrica y prevención de inundaciones.

Sin embargo, la auténtica revolución que representa FIRO trasciende el ámbito tecnológico; es una nueva concepción sobre infraestructura. En lugar de limitarnos a construir presas más grandes o diques más elevados, FIRO demuestra que, en ocasiones, las soluciones más efectivas surgen de la optimización inteligente de recursos existentes. Este paradigma refleja el pensamiento adaptativo necesario ante un clima cambiante, reminiscente de nuestras iniciativas de reconversión de tierras agrícolas hacia usos múltiples más sostenibles.

FIRO aporta la flexibilidad esencial que las operaciones hídricas requieren para adaptarse al cambio climático y sus múltiples consecuencias: deshielo prematuro, eventos extremos más frecuentes, calentamiento de aguas fluviales, mayor evaporación en lagos, intrusión marina, subsidencia y sobreexplotación de acuíferos. En el incierto panorama climático que enfrentamos, enfoques como FIRO—que abrazan la incertidumbre mediante avances científicos—resultarán determinantes para la sostenibilidad de comunidades, economías y ecosistemas. Aunque los desafíos hídricos y ambientales que aguardan son formidables, mantengo el optimismo: si confiamos en la ciencia y atendemos las voces de la ciudadanía, podremos construir un futuro hídrico caracterizado por su resiliencia y sostenibilidad.

Guardian Australia is highlighting the plight of our endangered native species during an election campaign that is ignoring broken environment laws and rapidly declining ecosystems

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The bogong moth was once so abundant it was mistaken for weather. During Sydney’s Olympic Games in 2000, a swarm of bogong moths attracted by stadium lights was so huge that meteorologists mistook it for a rain cloud.

But the species known as “deberra” in Taungurung language – an insect with deep cultural and ecological importance, but which is smaller and lighter than a paperclip – has not returned to those numbers since the population collapsed by up to 99.5% in the two years before 2019.

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More than 900 young people tell Guardian Australia they worry about money, housing and healthcare – and feel a sense of dread about the climate emergency, social cohesion and rise of the far right

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“There is a general sense – it sounds melodramatic – of, well, the world is ending, we have no way to deal with that, so we are just going to get on with life,” Axel says.

The 25-year-old is describing a feeling shared by his friends in their mid-20s.

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The move, focused on Nevada and New Mexico, is aimed at removing “burdensome” restrictions on energy and mineral development, a statement said.

Happy Water Week!

Have you ever seen the Sierra Nevada of California from the San Joaquin Valley in the early spring on a clear day? When the Sierra has snow and the air quality allows us to see it from here, that view is second to none.

Every year at this time when I look at the Sierra from the Valley, I know if I see little snow, it means it’s a dry year. When there is plenty of snow like now, I know it means less struggle with water supplies during the summer but also potential floods. Floods can come from rain-on-snow events and from high spring temperatures that melt the snow faster, and climate change is triggering earlier and faster snowmelt.  

For us water nerds, this view is more than a beautiful landscape. The snowpack is our main water storage in California after groundwater. This is a photo of the southern part of the Sierra Nevada in 2023 seen from Tulare County. Ángel S. Fernández-Bou

Last week’s snow survey confirmed what I saw in the mountains. The California Department of Water Resources reported that the state’s snowpack measured 96% of average at its peak on April 1. There is nuance, since the north got 120% and the south only 84%. We can say this is relatively good news, but we also have to remember that the last three years of near-average snowpack followed a severe drought from 2020 to 2022, the driest three-year period ever recorded in California.

These climatic extremes and the weather whiplash we experience here are becoming more frequent with climate change, and that’s why we need to plan for both flooding and the next dry period that could be just around the corner.

Snowpack of the Sierra Nevada (north, central, and south) presented as the percentage of the historical average snowpack on April 1st. While the north has more than the historical average, the south has less. At the state scale, the snowpack is approximately the historical average, but there will be more water in the north and less in the south than average.

As we mark Water Week 2025, preparing for extremes is critical for modernizing our water management. In past years, supercharged snowmelt has led to flooding and dam safety concerns. For example, in 2017 nearly 200,000 residents had to be evacuated below the Oroville Dam due to fears of collapse after a rain-on-snow event.

Oroville spillway damage in 2017. DWR

That’s why it’s vital that the state is working with the scientific community on a new management strategy to reduce flood risk for downstream communities and benefit water supplies during dry periods. It’s called Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations, or FIRO, a new approach that can help us more flexibly manage water extremes.

Many of the reservoirs in California are managed so they have space to capture flood water to avoid flooding damage and hazards while they are also used for water storage. Without FIRO, reservoirs are managed with fixed calendar-based rules that tell you how much water to keep in the reservoir for that time of year. FIRO enables reservoir operators to use forecasts to adjust the amount of water in the reservoir before storms, reducing flood risk by releasing water ahead of major events while holding water in the reservoir if there are forecasted precipitation events. FIRO benefits both sides of water management by mitigating flood risk and increasing water availability.

FIRO allows reservoir operators to keep water in the reservoir for future uses. In other words, FIRO avoids the fear of missing out (FOMO) on water that you could have stored if you had better forecasting.

FIRO started in California and has since gone worldwide

Once upon a time, there was (and still is) a megadrought in California that peaked in the acute drought of 2012 to 2016. If you’re a water nerd, you may know that drought triggered the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), which itself triggered the need to strategically repurpose about 1,000,000 acres of irrigated cropland in the state. By then, water managers were looking at extremely valuable water being released from reservoirs for flood prevention, even though there were no rainfall forecasts or snow to melt. And they wanted to do something.

The first FIRO pilot project was in Lake Mendocino on the Russian River in Northern California. There, a group of scientists, water managers, and engineers worked with the Army Corps of Engineers, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and the California Department of Water Resources to find a solution. The key? Our ever-improving hydrometeorological forecasts, which means more accuracy to predict temperature, precipitation, and streamflow. Our scientific knowledge about climate, meteorology, and hydrology improves every year thanks to federal agencies like NOAA and NASA, and their partnerships with the research community.

The accuracy of weather forecasts has improved a lot over the last decades. At present, we have very high accuracy for a 3-day forecast. With more research and faster supercomputers, we will be able to increase our ability to forecast with greater lead times, which can translate into better control of our reservoir operations.

Since then, FIRO-like approaches have appeared in other parts of the country. For example, Seattle can soon expect a better balance between flood protection and water availability as they are planning to use FIRO at the Howard Hanson Dam in the Green River watershed. In the Midwest, Lake Erie has the LEOFS (Lake Erie Operational Forecast System) to better manage water levels affected by seasonal variations and climate change. The Tennessee Valley Authority is also relying on this kind of flood management during extreme precipitation events, especially because of the more common hurricanes and climate change extremes the South is experiencing.

Outside the United States, countries like Australia and Japan, and the Mediterranean Region are also starting to include meteorological forecasts in their reservoir operations.

The benefits of implementing FIRO

FIRO’s power lies in its multifaceted benefits for water management. First, it can improve water availability when communities, farmers, and the environment need it most. By keeping water in reservoirs until meteorological forecasts indicate an actual need for flood prevention, we preserve our most precious resource for our Mediterranean summertime. This approach also offers more accurate flood management compared to calendar-based releases, as water is released only when meteorological forecasts couple with hydrological models (what we call hydrometeorology) actually indicate a flood risk, rather than based on historical statistics.

FIRO can achieve increased water storage without requiring new infrastructure. In an era where building new dams faces environmental, social, and economic barriers, FIRO maximizes the efficiency of existing infrastructure through smarter operations. The precision offered by hydrometeorological forecasting also allows for more targeted environmental releases, facilitating that ecological needs downstream are met when needed.

Finally, FIRO can contribute significantly to drought resilience—a critical concern as climate change intensifies dry periods in many regions. By retaining water during nonflood periods in the wet season, communities and farmers can save valuable water to protect themselves against drought conditions that might otherwise deplete water availability faster and trigger water use restrictions.

Potential challenges

Despite its clear advantages, implementing FIRO comes with several challenges that need to be considered. Forecast reliability is very high, particularly along the US West Coast, but not in all areas of the US or world, there is always uncertainty in any forecast. While meteorological forecasts become more accurate each year, dam operators must still account for the small-but-not-zero uncertainty in these predictions when managing flood risks. To account for the uncertainty in forecasts, the use of ensembles and probabilistic forecasts are important. When uncertainty means releasing more water than might be optimal for flood protection, we can mitigate this by directing releases to aquifer recharge projects. In addition to providing underground storage, recharge projects can be used to combat subsidence impacts, protect groundwater levels for domestic wells, help groundwater-dependent ecosystems, and prevent seawater intrusion in coastal regions.

FIRO also faces implementation barriers on both technical and institutional fronts. Technically, it requires specialized expertise in meteorology, hydrology, and reservoir operations—skill sets that may not always be available in water management agencies. Institutionally, it demands a culture shift away from calendar-based operations toward more dynamic, forecast-based decision making, which can meet resistance in organizations accustomed to traditional approaches. Although transformative changes like FIRO can take time, both the U.S. Army Corps and Bureau of Reclamation are now actively supporting FIRO efforts.

Additionally, the significant variations in climate, topography, and reservoir characteristics across different regions mean that FIRO can’t simply be copied from one watershed to another. Each implementation requires tailored approaches based on local conditions. This variability also underscores the importance of bringing local communities to the decision-making table—they often hold valuable knowledge about watershed behavior and have important stakes in reservoir management outcomes that must be addressed for successful implementation.

The future is FIRO

Meteorological forecasts will continue improving through advances in climate science and supercomputing. Artificial intelligence (AI) is now enhancing this approach, making FIRO more effective. AI integration with weather models promises greater accuracy, enabling more precise decisions about water storage and releases. Highly accurate forecasts may soon extend from days to weeks, giving water managers even more time to prepare for extreme events.

As climate change intensifies both flood and drought extremes, FIRO and similar approaches are a necessity for water management, as recent legislation in California acknowledges in the Atmospheric Rivers Research and Forecast Improvement Program: Enabling Climate Adaptation Through Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations and Hazard Resiliency (AR/FIRO) Program. AB30 (2023) updated current legislation to explicitly include FIRO as an emerging tool to better manage water scarcity and floods.

But the true revolution of FIRO extends beyond technology—it represents a fundamental shift in how we think about infrastructure. Rather than simply building bigger dams or higher levees, FIRO shows us that sometimes the most powerful solutions come from a smarter use of what we already have. This approach embodies the kind of adaptive thinking required in our changing climate, and reminds me a lot of our cropland repurposing work for smarter multiple uses of the land.

FIRO gives flexibility to water operations, and that flexibility is essential to adapt to climate change and its consequences in our water systems, such as earlier snowmelt, more frequent and extreme floods and droughts, warmer river water, more evaporation from lakes, seawater intrusion, subsidence, and overdrafted aquifers. As we face an uncertain climate future, approaches like FIRO that embrace uncertainty through better science will be crucial to sustaining our communities, economies, and ecosystems. Our water and environmental challenges ahead are immense, but if we trust science and we listen to people, I am optimistic that we can build a more resilient and sustainable water future.

In the next 15 years, the New York area could lose more than 80,000 homes to floods, worsening the housing shortage, according to a new report.

In the next 15 years, the New York area could lose more than 80,000 homes to floods, worsening the housing shortage, according to a new report.

Conservation groups condemn the move along with the government’s decision to extend the life of coal power stations

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Queensland’s target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 75% by 2035 could face the scrap heap, with the state energy minister ordering a review of the ambitious legislation.

The Clean Economy Jobs Bill was passed into law last year, with the backing of both Labor and the Liberal National party.

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