The Guardian Climate Change

A study suggests the global population has been undercounted – but we shouldn’t let the overpopulation alarmists win the argument

According to the UN, the world’s population stands at just over 8.2 billion. However, a recent study suggests the figure could be hundreds of millions or even billions higher. This news might sound terrifying, but it is important to remember that anxieties about overpopulation are rarely just about the numbers. They reflect power struggles over which lives matter, who is a burden or a threat and ultimately what the future should look like.

The world’s population reached 1 billion just after the turn of the 19th century. The number of people on the planet then began to grow exponentially, doubling to 2 billion by about 1925 and again to 4 billion about 50 years later. On 15 November 2022, the UN announced the birth of the eight billionth human.

Jonathan Kennedy teaches politics and global health at Queen Mary University of London, and is the author of Pathogenesis: How Germs Made History

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Austria and Slovenia are exceptions in continent where just a third of militaries even know their carbon footprint

• Revealed: Nato rearmament could increase emissions by 200m tonnes a year

• Carbon footprint of Israel’s war on Gaza exceeds that of many entire countries

Just two of 30 European countries have set a date to stop their militaries from emitting planet-heating emissions, a Guardian analysis has found, raising concerns about the carbon cost of Europe’s coming rearmament wave.

Austria and Slovenia are the only countries whose defence ministries have committed to reaching net zero military emissions, according to an analysis of 30 European countries, with only about one-third having worked out the size of their carbon footprint.

Scientists drill for ice cores containing information on preindustrial pollutants, but they are in a race against time

Howling wind relentlessly shakes the white tent, pitched among mounds of snow at a height of 4,100m (13,450ft) on the Corbassière, an Alpine glacier situated on the northern slopes of Switzerland’s Grand Combin massif.

Inside are scientists from Venice’s Ca’ Foscari University and the institute of polar science at Italy’s national research council (CNR).

High-profile Nationals and powerful forces in business and media are pushing back against climate action, posing a test of credibility for the new Liberal leader

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After another scrappy week for the faltering Coalition, Bridget McKenzie on Thursday called for the National party to stop talking about itself.

No sane observer of politics since the 3 May election could disagree, but the party’s Senate leader made the observation in an awkward setting: a Sky News interview.

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The heat is on

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Even in the foothills of the Italian Alps, cycling can be a practical alternative to driving, and more enjoyable, too

Living car-free in a big city is fairly common these days. Yes, it can mean some adaptation, but when so many things are on your doorstep it’s not such a big challenge. So how about car-free life in a remote Italian mountain village, with barely any public transport?

We have been living in rural Italy without a car for more than five years now. Even though we have always loved bicycles, the decision to sell our car wasn’t a particularly considered one.

Academic Neta Crawford warns that if Donald Trump follows through on his threats of war, emissions will soar and the planet will pay the price

• Carbon footprint of Israel’s war on Gaza exceeds that of many entire countries

• Revealed: Nato rearmament could increase emissions by 200m tonnes a year

The climate impact of Donald Trump’s geopolitical ambitions could deepen planetary catastrophe, triggering a global military buildup that accelerates greenhouse gas emissions, a leading expert has warned.

The Pentagon – the US armed forces and Department of Defense (DoD) agencies – is the world’s largest institutional greenhouse gas emitter, accounting for at least 1% of total US emissions annually, according to analysis by Neta Crawford, co-founder of the Costs of War project at Brown University.

Exclusive: Climate cost of war is more than than the combined 2023 emissions of Costa Rica and Estonia, study finds

• How the US became the biggest military emitter and stopped everyone finding out

• Revealed: Nato rearmament could increase emissions by 200m tonnes a year

The carbon footprint of the first 15 months of Israel’s war on Gaza will be greater than the annual planet-warming emissions of a hundred individual countries, exacerbating the global climate emergency on top of the huge civilian death toll, new research reveals.

A study shared exclusively with the Guardian found the long-term climate cost of destroying, clearing and rebuilding Gaza could top 31m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e). This is more than the combined 2023 annual greenhouse gases emitted by Costa Rica and Estonia, yet there is no obligation for states to report military emissions to the UN climate body.

Over 99% of the almost 1.89m tCO2e estimated to have been generated between the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack and the temporary ceasefire in January 2025 is attributed to Israel’s aerial bombardment and ground invasion of Gaza.

Almost 30% of greenhouse gases generated in that period came from the US sending 50,000 tonnes of weapons and other military supplies to Israel, mostly on cargo planes and ships from stockpiles in Europe. Another 20% is attributed to Israeli aircraft reconnaissance and bombing missions, tanks and fuel from other military vehicles, as well as CO2 generated by manufacturing and exploding the bombs and artillery.

Solar had generated as much as a quarter of Gaza’s electricity, representing one of the world’s highest shares, but most panels, and the territory’s only power plant, have been damaged or destroyed. Gaza’s limited access to electricity now mostly relies on diesel-guzzling generators that emitted just over 130,000 tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, or 7% of the total conflict emissions.

More than 40% of the total emissions were generated by the estimated 70,000 aid trucks Israel allowed into the Gaza Strip – which the UN has condemned as grossly insufficient to meet the basic humanitarian needs of 2.2m displaced and starving Palestinians.

Twenty-two plaintiffs between ages seven and 25 allege government is engaging in unlawful executive overreach

Twenty-two young Americans have filed a new lawsuit against the Trump administration over its anti-environment executive orders. By intentionally boosting oil and gas production and stymying carbon-free energy, federal officials are violating their constitutional rights to life and liberty, alleges the lawsuit, filed on Thursday.

The federal government is engaging in unlawful executive overreach by breaching congressional mandates to protect ecosystems and public health, argue the plaintiffs, who are between the ages of seven and 25 and hail from the heavily climate-impacted states of Montana, Hawaii, Oregon, California and Florida. They also say officials’ emissions-increasing and science-suppressing orders have violated the state-created danger doctrine, a legal principle meant to prevent government actors from inflicting injury upon their citizens.

Wildlife sanctuary manager Josh McAllister was stranded for three days with six tins of tuna, a bag of Doritos and a salad roll – but he was more worried about the bettongs

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When heavy monsoonal rain was forecast in north Queensland at the beginning of February, Josh McAllister and his family headed to Townsville to stock up on supplies.

As the rain came down, his partner and children did the bolt to home on Australian Wildlife Conservancy’s (AWC) Mount Zero-Taravale wildlife sanctuary, 80km to the north-west, taking with them the groceries. McAllister stayed in town to complete a few jobs.

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Former army and navy leaders urge government to think beyond military capability in advance of key defence review

Former military leaders are urging the UK government to widen its definition of national security to include climate, food and energy measures in advance of a planned multibillion-pound boost in defence spending.

Earlier this year Keir Starmer announced the biggest increase in defence spending in the UK since the end of the cold war, with the budget rising to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 – three years earlier than planned – and an ambition to reach 3%.

The new executive order allows political appointees to undermine research they oppose, paving the way for state-controlled science

Science is under siege.

On Friday evening, the White House released an executive order called Restoring Gold Standard Science. At face value, this order promises a commitment to federally funded research that is “transparent, rigorous, and impactful” and policy that is informed by “the most credible, reliable, and impartial scientific evidence available”. But hidden beneath the scientific rhetoric is a plan that would destroy scientific independence in the US by giving political appointees the latitude to dismiss entire bodies of research and punish researchers who fail to fall in line with the current administration’s objectives. In other words: this is Fool’s-Gold Standard Science.

Colette Delawalla is a PhD candidate at Emory University and executive director of Stand Up for Science. Victor Ambros is a 2024 Nobel laureate in physiology or medicine at the Chan Medical School, University of Massachusetts. Carl Bergstrom is professor of biology at the University of Washington. Carol Greider is a 2009 Nobel laureate in medicine and distinguished professor at the University of California, Santa Cruz. Michael Mann is the presidential distinguished professor of earth and environmental science and director of the Center for Science, Sustainability, and the Media at the University of Pennsylvania. Brian Nosek is executive director of the Center for Open Science and professor of psychology at the University of Virginia

Geologists race to collect perishable data as Kentucky residents ‘scared to death’ over floods amid Trump cuts

The abandoned homes and razed lots along the meandering Troublesome Creek in rural eastern Kentucky is a constant reminder of the 2022 catastrophic floods that killed dozens of people and displaced thousands more.

Among the hardest hit was Fisty, a tiny community where eight homes, two shops and nine people including a woman who uses a wheelchair, her husband and two children, were swept away by the rising creek. Some residents dismissed cellphone alerts of potential flooding due to mistrust and warning fatigue, while for others it was already too late to escape. Landslides trapped the survivors and the deceased for several days.

Exclusive: researchers say defence spending boosts across world will worsen climate crisis which in turn will cause more conflict

A global military buildup poses an existential threat to climate goals, according to researchers who say the rearmament planned by Nato alone could increase greenhouse gas emissions by almost 200m tonnes a year.

With the world embroiled in the highest number of armed conflicts since the second world war, countries have embarked on military spending sprees, collectively totalling a record $2.46tn in 2023.

BoM prediction follows much wetter than average autumn for northern and eastern Australia, and much drier one for south

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Australia’s winter will be warmer and wetter this year, with higher than average day and night temperatures, and above-average rainfall likely in central and interior parts of the country.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range forecast said parts of the tropical north, south-east and south-west could expect typical winter rainfall, including coastal areas of New South Wales affected by the May floods, and parts of South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania where there have been prolonged dry conditions.

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There are more than 130 active wildfires across the country, half of which are considered out of control

More than 17,000 people in Canada’s western Manitoba province were being evacuated on Wednesday as the region experienced its worst start to the wildfire season in years.

“The Manitoba government has declared a province-wide state of emergency due to the wildfire situation,” Manitoba’s premier, Wab Kinew, told a news conference. “This is the largest evacuation Manitoba will have seen in most people’s living memory.”

A huge section of a glacier in the Swiss Alps has broken off, causing a deluge of ice, mud and rock to bury most of a village evacuated earlier this month due to the risk of a rockslide. Footage showed a vast plain of mud and soil covering the village after the Birch Glacier partially collapsed. A river that runs through the village was also inundated, along with the wooded sides of the surrounding valley

• Swiss village almost entirely destroyed after collapse of glacier buries it in mud

One person missing and Blatten devastated after huge cloud of ice and rubble inundates evacuated town

A huge section of a glacier in the Swiss Alps has broken off, causing a deluge of ice, mud and rock to bury most of a village evacuated earlier this month due to the risk of a rockslide.

Drone footage broadcast by Swiss national broadcaster SRF showed a vast plain of mud and soil completely covering part of the village of Blatten, the river running through it and the wooded sides of the surrounding valley.

Tax expected to generate nearly $100m annually, to be used for projects such as replacing sand on eroding beaches

Hawaii’s governor signed legislation that boosts a tax imposed on hotel room and vacation rental stays in order to raise money to address the consequences of the climate crisis.

It’s the first time in a government in the US imposes such levy to help cope with a warming planet.

Exclusive: André Corrêa do Lago says ‘answers have to come from the economy’ as climate policies trigger populist-fuelled backlash

The world is facing a new form of climate denial – not the dismissal of climate science, but a concerted attack on the idea that the economy can be reorganised to fight the crisis, the president of global climate talks has warned.

André Corrêa do Lago, the veteran Brazilian diplomat who will direct this year’s UN summit, Cop30, believes his biggest job will be to counter the attempt from some vested interests to prevent climate policies aimed at shifting the global economy to a low-carbon footing.