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iwaldron's picture

More resources about COVID-19

 1)  An outstanding set of 31 slides dated March 15 is by Michael Lin, PhD & MD, at Stanford. It's on coronavirus research, drugs that show promise in relieving symptoms of seriously ill people, practical ideas to protect yourself (in categories from elderly to youth) and WHY; I recommend especially slides 13 and 27. He suggests a peak hospitalization rate in early June. Download it here:

drive.google.com/file/d/1DqfSnlaW6N3GBc5YKyBOCGPfdqOsqk1G/view<https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DqfSnlaW6N3GBc5YKyBOCGPfdqOsqk1G/view>

2) A March 16 report on coronavirus research (20 pages) is by a HUGE team of researchers at Imperial College in the UK. It uses worldwide data, new and old (including U.S. deaths until March 14) and develops a model. It suggests that social distancing and other aggressive societal measures are likely to be needed for the next year and a half, until a vaccine is developed and readily available. In pdf:

www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf<https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

[An excerpt:]  We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.

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