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iwaldron's picture

Why we should all self-quarantine as much as possible

A detailed analysis of the risk due to the new coronavirus is available at https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca. My summary of the main points is as follows.

– In Wuhan, the confirmed cases were much lower (by roughly an order of magnitude) and lagged behind the true cases. Strict social distancing was effective in minimizing further spread.

– Widespread testing plus isolation of the patient and his/her contacts, limiting who comes into the country, and good protective gear for health workers can keep the infection rate low and keep hospitals from being overwhelmed, resulting in a mortality rate of around 0.5%-0.9%.

– In Iran, Italy and Wuhan without these precautions, hospitals were completely overwhelmed and mortality rate has been around 3%-5%.

– The US is following the latter course. If somebody is coughing, virus can spread within 2 meters. The virus survives for up to three days on surfaces like doorknobs, tables, elevator buttons. So, stay home as much as possible!

In this context, I quote the advice of a friend of mine who has unfortunately had to have a great deal of experience in self-quarantining.

See people in safe ways often, like go walking outside and use FaceTime/Skype to connect.
Have interesting projects to do, and I'm not talking about (only) Netflix!
Have something specific to look forward to every day.
Read a lot. Not the New York Times (or other newspapers).

Wishing you good health,

Ingrid

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