Serendip is an independent site partnering with faculty at multiple colleges and universities around the world. Happy exploring!

You are here

Feed aggregator

‘Getting Heavier’: Climate Change Primes Storms to Drop More Rain

NYT Global Warming Climate Change - April 8, 2025 - 15:01
With rising temperatures, the atmosphere can hold more moisture, meaning precipitation has a tendency to fall at more extreme levels.
Categories: Climate

FIRO para evitar el FOMO hídrico: cómo no desperdiciar ni una gota en operaciones de embalses en California

¡Feliz Semana del Agua!

¿Has visto alguna vez la Sierra Nevada de California desde el Valle de San Joaquín a principios de primavera en un día despejado? Cuando la Sierra tiene nieve y la calidad del aire nos permite verla desde aquí, esa vista no tiene igual.

Cada año en esta época, cuando miro la Sierra desde el Valle, sé que si veo poca nieve será un año seco. Cuando hay bastante nieve como ahora, sé que habrá menos dificultades con el suministro de agua durante el verano, pero puede haber inundaciones. Las inundaciones pueden ser causadas por lluvia sobre nieve y por altas temperaturas primaverales que derriten la nieve más rápido y antes de lo habitual. El cambio climático está provocando un deshielo más temprano y rápido.

Para nosotros, los apasionados del agua, esta vista es más que un hermoso paisaje. El manto de nieve es nuestra reserva de agua principal en California después del agua subterránea. Esta es una foto de la parte sur de la Sierra Nevada en 2023 vista desde el condado de Tulare. Foto por Angel S. Fernandez-Bou.

El estudio de niveles de nieve de la semana pasada confirmó lo que vemos en las montañas. El Departamento de Recursos Hídricos de California informó que el manto de nieve del estado midió el 96% del promedio en su punto máximo el 1 de abril. Hay matices, ya que el norte recibió el 120% y el sur solo el 84%. Podemos decir que estas son noticias relativamente buenas, pero también debemos recordar que los últimos tres años de manto de nieve promedio fueron seguidos de una severa sequía desde 2020 hasta 2022, el período de tres años más seco registrado en California.

Estos extremos climáticos y los cambios meteorológicos bruscos que experimentamos aquí son cada vez más frecuentes con el cambio climático, y es por eso que necesitamos planificar tanto para las inundaciones como para el próximo período seco que podría estar a la vuelta de la esquina.

Manto de nieve de la Sierra Nevada (norte, centro y sur) presentado como porcentaje de nieve comparado con el promedio histórico el 1 de abril. Mientras que el norte tiene más que el promedio histórico, el sur tiene menos. A escala estatal, el manto de nieve es aproximadamente el promedio histórico, pero habrá más agua en el norte y menos en el sur que el promedio.

En esta Semana del Agua 2025 tenemos que recapacitar sobre cómo prepararnos para los extremos climáticos modernizando nuestra gestión del agua. En años anteriores, el deshielo rápido ha provocado inundaciones y preocupaciones sobre la integridad estructural de algunas presas. Por ejemplo, en 2017, casi 200,000 residentes tuvieron que ser evacuados aguas abajo de Oroville debido a la probabilidad de un colapso después de un evento de lluvia sobre nieve.

Daño en el aliviadero de Oroville en 2017. Fuente: DWR

Por eso es vital que el estado esté trabajando con la comunidad científica en una nueva estrategia de gestión para reducir el riesgo de inundaciones para las comunidades río abajo y beneficiar los suministros de agua durante los períodos secos. Esta estrategia se llama FIRO, por sus siglas en ingles que significa “operaciones de embalses informadas por pronósticos meteorológicos”, y es un nuevo enfoque que puede ayudarnos a manejar de manera más flexible los extremos del agua.

Numerosas presas en California están diseñadas con un doble propósito: disponer de capacidad para capturar aguas de crecida y prevenir inundaciones, mientras simultáneamente funcionan como reservorios para el almacenamiento hídrico. Tradicionalmente, sin FIRO, estas presas se operan siguiendo normas rígidas basadas en el calendario, que determinan el volumen de agua que debe mantenerse en el embalse según la época del año.

Lo que FIRO aporta es permitir a los gestores de presas utilizar pronósticos meteorológicos para tomar decisiones más inteligentes sobre los niveles de agua. Pueden liberar agua preventivamente antes de tormentas significativas para crear capacidad adicional, o conservarla cuando los pronósticos no indican riesgos inminentes de precipitación. Esta aproximación flexible optimiza la gestión hídrica en ambos frentes: minimiza los riesgos de inundación y maximiza la disponibilidad del recurso.

En esencia, FIRO posibilita que los operadores conserven más agua en los embalses para utilizaciones futuras. Es decir, FIRO elimina ese “miedo a perderse oportunidades” (FOMO) respecto al agua que podría haberse almacenado si se contara con mejores herramientas de predicción.

FIRO: de California al mundo

Érase una vez (y persiste aún) una megasequía en California que alcanzó su punto crítico durante el período de severa escasez hídrica entre 2012 y 2016. Los entusiastas del agua de California tal vez sepan que esta sequía fue el catalizador que impulsó la Ley de Gestión Sostenible del Agua Subterránea (SGMA), la cual a su vez evidenció la necesidad de reusar estratégicamente cerca de un millón de acres de tierras agrícolas irrigadas en el estado. En aquel momento, los operadores de embalses observaban con preocupación cómo se liberaba agua de valor incalculable desde las presas como medida preventiva contra inundaciones, incluso cuando no existían pronósticos de lluvia ni acumulación de nieve por derretir. Esta situación exigía una solución.

El proyecto pionero de FIRO se implementó en el Lago Mendocino, en la cuenca del Río Ruso al norte de California. Allí convergió un equipo multidisciplinario de científicos, gestores hídricos e ingenieros que colaboraron con el Cuerpo de Ingenieros del Ejército, la Administración Nacional Oceánica y Atmosférica (NOAA), la Institución Scripps de Oceanografía y el Departamento de Recursos Hídricos de California para desarrollar una solución innovadora. El elemento decisivo fueron los avances en pronósticos hidrometeorológicos, que permiten predecir con mayor exactitud la temperatura, las precipitaciones y los caudales de los ríos. Este conocimiento científico sobre clima, meteorología e hidrología se perfecciona continuamente gracias a la labor de agencias federales como NOAA y NASA, en estrecha colaboración con la comunidad científica.

La precisión de los pronósticos meteorológicos ha experimentado avances significativos en décadas recientes. Actualmente, alcanzamos una fiabilidad extraordinaria en previsiones a tres días. Con mayor investigación y el desarrollo de supercomputadoras más potentes, ampliaremos nuestra capacidad para realizar pronósticos con mayor anticipación, lo que permitirá gestionar de manera óptima las operaciones de nuestros embalses.

A partir de esta experiencia inicial, metodologías similares a FIRO han surgido en diversas regiones del país. En Seattle, por ejemplo, se prevé lograr un mejor equilibrio entre la protección contra inundaciones y la disponibilidad hídrica mediante la implementación de FIRO en la presa Howard Hanson de la cuenca del Río Verde. En la región del Medio Oeste, el Lago Erie cuenta con LEOFS (Sistema de Pronóstico Operativo del Lago Erie) para administrar eficientemente los niveles de agua afectados por variaciones estacionales y el cambio climático. Por su parte, la Autoridad del Valle de Tennessee también ha adoptado este enfoque de gestión de inundaciones para afrontar eventos de precipitación extrema, particularmente ante la creciente frecuencia de huracanes y otros fenómenos climáticos extremos que afectan el sur del país.

Esta revolución en la gestión hídrica trasciende fronteras. Fuera de Estados Unidos, países como Australia y Japón, así como la región mediterránea, están incorporando progresivamente los pronósticos meteorológicos en la planificación y operación de sus sistemas de embalses.

Los beneficios transformadores de implementar FIRO

El poder de FIRO reside en su capacidad para revolucionar múltiples aspectos de la gestión hídrica. En primer lugar, optimiza la disponibilidad del agua precisamente cuando más la necesitan las comunidades, el sector agrícola y los ecosistemas. Al conservar el agua en los embalses hasta que los pronósticos meteorológicos señalen una auténtica necesidad de prevención de inundaciones, aseguramos reservas hídricas vitales para nuestros característicos veranos mediterráneos.

Este sistema representa un salto cualitativo en la gestión de inundaciones respecto a los métodos tradicionales basados en calendarios con fechas predeterminadas. Con FIRO, las decisiones de liberación de agua se fundamentan en la convergencia de pronósticos meteorológicos y modelos hidrológicos (la ciencia hidrometeorológica) que identifican riesgos reales de inundación, superando así la dependencia de meras estadísticas históricas.

Una ventaja significativa del sistema FIRO es su capacidad para incrementar el almacenamiento hídrico sin requerir construcciones adicionales. En un contexto donde los nuevos proyectos de presas enfrentan crecientes obstáculos ambientales, sociales y económicos, FIRO permite extraer el máximo rendimiento de la infraestructura ya existente mediante una operación más inteligente. Adicionalmente, la precisión que proporcionan los pronósticos hidrometeorológicos facilita la programación de descargas ambientales estratégicas, garantizando que se atiendan las necesidades ecológicas de los ríos y las especias acuáticas en momentos precisos.

Por último, FIRO constituye una herramienta fundamental para fortalecer la resiliencia frente a sequías, una preocupación cada vez más acuciante conforme el cambio climático intensifica los períodos secos en numerosas regiones. Al conservar agua durante los intervalos sin riesgo de inundación dentro de la estación húmeda, tanto comunidades como agricultores pueden asegurar reservas hídricas estratégicas para afrontar episodios de sequía que, de otro modo, agotarían rápidamente los recursos disponibles y provocarían restricciones severas en el consumo.

Desafíos en el horizonte de implementación

A pesar de sus evidentes beneficios, la implementación de FIRO presenta diversos desafíos que requieren consideración. Si bien la fiabilidad de los pronósticos meteorológicos es notablemente alta, especialmente en la Costa Oeste de Estados Unidos, no todas las regiones del país o del mundo cuentan con este nivel de precisión. Siempre hay un grado de incertidumbre inherente a cualquier predicción. Aunque la exactitud de los pronósticos mejora anualmente, los operadores de embalses deben contemplar ese margen—pequeño pero existente—de incertidumbre al tomar decisiones sobre la gestión de riesgos por inundación.

Para abordar esta incertidumbre, resulta fundamental el uso de pronósticos probabilísticos y sistemas de ensambles. En situaciones donde la prudencia dicta liberar volúmenes de agua superiores a los óptimos para la protección contra inundaciones, existe la posibilidad de mitigar este impacto canalizando estos excedentes hacia proyectos de recarga de acuíferos. Estos sistemas de recarga no solo proporcionan almacenamiento subterráneo adicional, sino que también contribuyen a contrarrestar problemas de subsidencia del terreno, proteger nuestros acuíferos para que no se sequen nuestros pozos domésticos, preservar ecosistemas dependientes de aguas subterráneas y prevenir la intrusión salina en zonas costeras.

FIRO enfrenta, además, barreras técnicas e institucionales significativas. Desde la perspectiva técnica, requiere conocimientos especializados en meteorología, hidrología y gestión de embalses—competencias que no siempre están disponibles en los organismos responsables de la administración hídrica. En el plano institucional, implica una transformación cultural que abandone las operaciones basadas en calendarios predeterminados para adoptar un modelo de toma de decisiones dinámico fundamentado en pronósticos, lo que puede generar resistencia en organizaciones habituadas a metodologías convencionales. Si bien estas transiciones transformadoras requieren tiempo, es alentador que tanto el Cuerpo de Ingenieros del Ejército como la Oficina de Reclamación estén respaldando activamente las iniciativas FIRO.

Las marcadas diferencias climáticas, topográficas y de características de embalses entre distintas regiones imposibilitan la simple replicación del modelo FIRO de una cuenca a otra. Cada implementación requiere adaptaciones específicas basadas en condiciones locales. Esta diversidad subraya la importancia de integrar a las comunidades locales en los procesos decisorios, pues frecuentemente poseen un conocimiento invaluable sobre las dinámicas de la cuenca y tienen intereses legítimos en la gestión de los embalses que deben ser considerados para garantizar una implementación exitosa.

El futuro pertenece a FIRO

Los avances en ciencia climática y supercomputación continuarán perfeccionando los pronósticos meteorológicos. La inteligencia artificial (IA) está potenciando este enfoque, incrementando la efectividad de FIRO. La integración de IA en modelos meteorológicos augura una precisión sin precedentes, facilitando decisiones más acertadas sobre almacenamiento y liberación de agua. En un futuro próximo, las previsiones meteorológicas de alta precisión podrían extenderse de días a semanas, otorgando a los operadores de embalses un margen temporal más amplio para prepararse ante eventos extremos.

Conforme el cambio climático intensifica tanto las inundaciones como las sequías extremas, FIRO y metodologías afines se vuelven indispensables para la gestión hídrica moderna, como reconoce la legislación reciente en California mediante el Programa de Investigación y Mejora de Pronósticos de Ríos Atmosféricos: Habilitando la Adaptación Climática a través de Operaciones de Embalses Informadas por Pronósticos y Resiliencia ante Peligros (AR/FIRO). La ley AB30 (2023) actualizó el marco normativo para incorporar explícitamente a FIRO como herramienta estratégica en la gestión de la escasez hídrica y prevención de inundaciones.

Sin embargo, la auténtica revolución que representa FIRO trasciende el ámbito tecnológico; es una nueva concepción sobre infraestructura. En lugar de limitarnos a construir presas más grandes o diques más elevados, FIRO demuestra que, en ocasiones, las soluciones más efectivas surgen de la optimización inteligente de recursos existentes. Este paradigma refleja el pensamiento adaptativo necesario ante un clima cambiante, reminiscente de nuestras iniciativas de reconversión de tierras agrícolas hacia usos múltiples más sostenibles.

FIRO aporta la flexibilidad esencial que las operaciones hídricas requieren para adaptarse al cambio climático y sus múltiples consecuencias: deshielo prematuro, eventos extremos más frecuentes, calentamiento de aguas fluviales, mayor evaporación en lagos, intrusión marina, subsidencia y sobreexplotación de acuíferos. En el incierto panorama climático que enfrentamos, enfoques como FIRO—que abrazan la incertidumbre mediante avances científicos—resultarán determinantes para la sostenibilidad de comunidades, economías y ecosistemas. Aunque los desafíos hídricos y ambientales que aguardan son formidables, mantengo el optimismo: si confiamos en la ciencia y atendemos las voces de la ciudadanía, podremos construir un futuro hídrico caracterizado por su resiliencia y sostenibilidad.

Categories: Climate

Massive swarms of bogong moths once resembled rain clouds – then their numbers crashed to earth

The Guardian Climate Change - April 8, 2025 - 11:00

Guardian Australia is highlighting the plight of our endangered native species during an election campaign that is ignoring broken environment laws and rapidly declining ecosystems

The bogong moth was once so abundant it was mistaken for weather. During Sydney’s Olympic Games in 2000, a swarm of bogong moths attracted by stadium lights was so huge that meteorologists mistook it for a rain cloud.

But the species known as “deberra” in Taungurung language – an insect with deep cultural and ecological importance, but which is smaller and lighter than a paperclip – has not returned to those numbers since the population collapsed by up to 99.5% in the two years before 2019.

Get Guardian Australia environment editor Adam Morton’s Clear Air column as an email

Continue reading...
Categories: Climate

Stressed, scared, overwhelmed: the election issues weighing on young Australian voters

The Guardian Climate Change - April 8, 2025 - 11:00

More than 900 young people tell Guardian Australia they worry about money, housing and healthcare – and feel a sense of dread about the climate emergency, social cohesion and rise of the far right

“There is a general sense – it sounds melodramatic – of, well, the world is ending, we have no way to deal with that, so we are just going to get on with life,” Axel says.

The 25-year-old is describing a feeling shared by his friends in their mid-20s.

Sign up for the Afternoon Update: Election 2025 email newsletter

Continue reading...
Categories: Climate

Trump Administration Lifts Mining and Drilling Restrictions in Nevada and New Mexico

NYT Global Warming Climate Change - April 8, 2025 - 09:48
The move, focused on Nevada and New Mexico, is aimed at removing “burdensome” restrictions on energy and mineral development, a statement said.
Categories: Climate

FIRO to Avoid Water FOMO: How to Save Every Drop with Smart Reservoir Operations in California

Happy Water Week!

Have you ever seen the Sierra Nevada of California from the San Joaquin Valley in the early spring on a clear day? When the Sierra has snow and the air quality allows us to see it from here, that view is second to none.

Every year at this time when I look at the Sierra from the Valley, I know if I see little snow, it means it’s a dry year. When there is plenty of snow like now, I know it means less struggle with water supplies during the summer but also potential floods. Floods can come from rain-on-snow events and from high spring temperatures that melt the snow faster, and climate change is triggering earlier and faster snowmelt.  

For us water nerds, this view is more than a beautiful landscape. The snowpack is our main water storage in California after groundwater. This is a photo of the southern part of the Sierra Nevada in 2023 seen from Tulare County. Ángel S. Fernández-Bou

Last week’s snow survey confirmed what I saw in the mountains. The California Department of Water Resources reported that the state’s snowpack measured 96% of average at its peak on April 1. There is nuance, since the north got 120% and the south only 84%. We can say this is relatively good news, but we also have to remember that the last three years of near-average snowpack followed a severe drought from 2020 to 2022, the driest three-year period ever recorded in California.

These climatic extremes and the weather whiplash we experience here are becoming more frequent with climate change, and that’s why we need to plan for both flooding and the next dry period that could be just around the corner.

Snowpack of the Sierra Nevada (north, central, and south) presented as the percentage of the historical average snowpack on April 1st. While the north has more than the historical average, the south has less. At the state scale, the snowpack is approximately the historical average, but there will be more water in the north and less in the south than average.

As we mark Water Week 2025, preparing for extremes is critical for modernizing our water management. In past years, supercharged snowmelt has led to flooding and dam safety concerns. For example, in 2017 nearly 200,000 residents had to be evacuated below the Oroville Dam due to fears of collapse after a rain-on-snow event.

Oroville spillway damage in 2017. DWR

That’s why it’s vital that the state is working with the scientific community on a new management strategy to reduce flood risk for downstream communities and benefit water supplies during dry periods. It’s called Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations, or FIRO, a new approach that can help us more flexibly manage water extremes.

Many of the reservoirs in California are managed so they have space to capture flood water to avoid flooding damage and hazards while they are also used for water storage. Without FIRO, reservoirs are managed with fixed calendar-based rules that tell you how much water to keep in the reservoir for that time of year. FIRO enables reservoir operators to use forecasts to adjust the amount of water in the reservoir before storms, reducing flood risk by releasing water ahead of major events while holding water in the reservoir if there are forecasted precipitation events. FIRO benefits both sides of water management by mitigating flood risk and increasing water availability.

FIRO allows reservoir operators to keep water in the reservoir for future uses. In other words, FIRO avoids the fear of missing out (FOMO) on water that you could have stored if you had better forecasting.

FIRO started in California and has since gone worldwide

Once upon a time, there was (and still is) a megadrought in California that peaked in the acute drought of 2012 to 2016. If you’re a water nerd, you may know that drought triggered the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), which itself triggered the need to strategically repurpose about 1,000,000 acres of irrigated cropland in the state. By then, water managers were looking at extremely valuable water being released from reservoirs for flood prevention, even though there were no rainfall forecasts or snow to melt. And they wanted to do something.

The first FIRO pilot project was in Lake Mendocino on the Russian River in Northern California. There, a group of scientists, water managers, and engineers worked with the Army Corps of Engineers, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and the California Department of Water Resources to find a solution. The key? Our ever-improving hydrometeorological forecasts, which means more accuracy to predict temperature, precipitation, and streamflow. Our scientific knowledge about climate, meteorology, and hydrology improves every year thanks to federal agencies like NOAA and NASA, and their partnerships with the research community.

The accuracy of weather forecasts has improved a lot over the last decades. At present, we have very high accuracy for a 3-day forecast. With more research and faster supercomputers, we will be able to increase our ability to forecast with greater lead times, which can translate into better control of our reservoir operations.

Since then, FIRO-like approaches have appeared in other parts of the country. For example, Seattle can soon expect a better balance between flood protection and water availability as they are planning to use FIRO at the Howard Hanson Dam in the Green River watershed. In the Midwest, Lake Erie has the LEOFS (Lake Erie Operational Forecast System) to better manage water levels affected by seasonal variations and climate change. The Tennessee Valley Authority is also relying on this kind of flood management during extreme precipitation events, especially because of the more common hurricanes and climate change extremes the South is experiencing.

Outside the United States, countries like Australia and Japan, and the Mediterranean Region are also starting to include meteorological forecasts in their reservoir operations.

The benefits of implementing FIRO

FIRO’s power lies in its multifaceted benefits for water management. First, it can improve water availability when communities, farmers, and the environment need it most. By keeping water in reservoirs until meteorological forecasts indicate an actual need for flood prevention, we preserve our most precious resource for our Mediterranean summertime. This approach also offers more accurate flood management compared to calendar-based releases, as water is released only when meteorological forecasts couple with hydrological models (what we call hydrometeorology) actually indicate a flood risk, rather than based on historical statistics.

FIRO can achieve increased water storage without requiring new infrastructure. In an era where building new dams faces environmental, social, and economic barriers, FIRO maximizes the efficiency of existing infrastructure through smarter operations. The precision offered by hydrometeorological forecasting also allows for more targeted environmental releases, facilitating that ecological needs downstream are met when needed.

Finally, FIRO can contribute significantly to drought resilience—a critical concern as climate change intensifies dry periods in many regions. By retaining water during nonflood periods in the wet season, communities and farmers can save valuable water to protect themselves against drought conditions that might otherwise deplete water availability faster and trigger water use restrictions.

Potential challenges

Despite its clear advantages, implementing FIRO comes with several challenges that need to be considered. Forecast reliability is very high, particularly along the US West Coast, but not in all areas of the US or world, there is always uncertainty in any forecast. While meteorological forecasts become more accurate each year, dam operators must still account for the small-but-not-zero uncertainty in these predictions when managing flood risks. To account for the uncertainty in forecasts, the use of ensembles and probabilistic forecasts are important. When uncertainty means releasing more water than might be optimal for flood protection, we can mitigate this by directing releases to aquifer recharge projects. In addition to providing underground storage, recharge projects can be used to combat subsidence impacts, protect groundwater levels for domestic wells, help groundwater-dependent ecosystems, and prevent seawater intrusion in coastal regions.

FIRO also faces implementation barriers on both technical and institutional fronts. Technically, it requires specialized expertise in meteorology, hydrology, and reservoir operations—skill sets that may not always be available in water management agencies. Institutionally, it demands a culture shift away from calendar-based operations toward more dynamic, forecast-based decision making, which can meet resistance in organizations accustomed to traditional approaches. Although transformative changes like FIRO can take time, both the U.S. Army Corps and Bureau of Reclamation are now actively supporting FIRO efforts.

Additionally, the significant variations in climate, topography, and reservoir characteristics across different regions mean that FIRO can’t simply be copied from one watershed to another. Each implementation requires tailored approaches based on local conditions. This variability also underscores the importance of bringing local communities to the decision-making table—they often hold valuable knowledge about watershed behavior and have important stakes in reservoir management outcomes that must be addressed for successful implementation.

The future is FIRO

Meteorological forecasts will continue improving through advances in climate science and supercomputing. Artificial intelligence (AI) is now enhancing this approach, making FIRO more effective. AI integration with weather models promises greater accuracy, enabling more precise decisions about water storage and releases. Highly accurate forecasts may soon extend from days to weeks, giving water managers even more time to prepare for extreme events.

As climate change intensifies both flood and drought extremes, FIRO and similar approaches are a necessity for water management, as recent legislation in California acknowledges in the Atmospheric Rivers Research and Forecast Improvement Program: Enabling Climate Adaptation Through Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations and Hazard Resiliency (AR/FIRO) Program. AB30 (2023) updated current legislation to explicitly include FIRO as an emerging tool to better manage water scarcity and floods.

But the true revolution of FIRO extends beyond technology—it represents a fundamental shift in how we think about infrastructure. Rather than simply building bigger dams or higher levees, FIRO shows us that sometimes the most powerful solutions come from a smarter use of what we already have. This approach embodies the kind of adaptive thinking required in our changing climate, and reminds me a lot of our cropland repurposing work for smarter multiple uses of the land.

FIRO gives flexibility to water operations, and that flexibility is essential to adapt to climate change and its consequences in our water systems, such as earlier snowmelt, more frequent and extreme floods and droughts, warmer river water, more evaporation from lakes, seawater intrusion, subsidence, and overdrafted aquifers. As we face an uncertain climate future, approaches like FIRO that embrace uncertainty through better science will be crucial to sustaining our communities, economies, and ecosystems. Our water and environmental challenges ahead are immense, but if we trust science and we listen to people, I am optimistic that we can build a more resilient and sustainable water future.

Categories: Climate

How Climate Change Could Make Homes Disappear

NYT Global Warming Climate Change - April 8, 2025 - 05:01
In the next 15 years, the New York area could lose more than 80,000 homes to floods, worsening the housing shortage, according to a new report.
Categories: Climate

How Climate Change Could Make Homes Disappear

NYT Global Warming Climate Change - April 8, 2025 - 05:01
In the next 15 years, the New York area could lose more than 80,000 homes to floods, worsening the housing shortage, according to a new report.
Categories: Climate

LNP orders review of Queensland’s emissions reduction target of 75% by 2035

The Guardian Climate Change - April 8, 2025 - 04:42

Conservation groups condemn the move along with the government’s decision to extend the life of coal power stations

Queensland’s target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 75% by 2035 could face the scrap heap, with the state energy minister ordering a review of the ambitious legislation.

The Clean Economy Jobs Bill was passed into law last year, with the backing of both Labor and the Liberal National party.

Sign up for the Afternoon Update: Election 2025 email newsletter

Continue reading...
Categories: Climate

‘All other avenues have been exhausted’: Is legal action the only way to save the planet?

The Guardian Climate Change - April 8, 2025 - 00:00

Monica Feria-Tinta is one of a growing number of lawyers using the courts to make governments around the world take action

In November 2024, Monica Feria-Tinta, a veteran of UN tribunals and the international criminal court, strode through a heavy black door into a Georgian building in London’s august legal district for a meeting about a tree in Southend. Affectionately known as Chester, the 150-year-old plane tree towers over a bus shelter in the centre of the Essex seaside town. The council wanted to cut it down and residents were fighting back – but they were running out of options. Katy Treverton, a local campaigner, had travelled from Southend to ask Feria-Tinta’s legal advice. “Chester is one of the last trees left in this part of Southend,” said Treverton, sitting at a large table in an airy meeting room. “Losing him would be losing part of the city’s identity.”

Feria-Tinta nodded, deep-red fingernails clattering on her laptop as she typed. She paused and looked up. “Are we entitled to nature? Is that a human right? I would say yes. It’s not an easy argument, but it’s a valid one.” She recommended going to the council with hard data about the impact of trees on health, and how removing the tree could violate the rights of an economically deprived community. Recent rulings in the European court of human rights, she added, reinforced the notion that the state has obligations on the climate crisis. This set a legal precedent that could help residents defend their single tree in Southend. “It isn’t just a tree,” said Feria-Tinta. “More than that is at stake: a principle.”

Continue reading...
Categories: Climate

Many native New Zealand species face threat of extinction, report finds

The Guardian Climate Change - April 7, 2025 - 16:31

A three-yearly environmental update issues stark warning over biodiversity – and reports air pollution has improved in some areas

A major new report on New Zealand’s environment has revealed a worrying outlook for its unique species and highlighted declining water health, while also noting some improvements in air quality.

The ministry of the environment’s three-yearly update, Our Environment 2025, collates statistics, data and research across five domains – air, atmosphere and climate, freshwater, land, and marine – to paint a picture of the state of New Zealand’s environment.

Continue reading...
Categories: Climate

Labor's home batteries policy could help people who will never take it up. Here's how | Adam Morton

The Guardian Climate Change - April 7, 2025 - 11:00

The government’s promise to slash the cost of household batteries should be welcomed – it could drive a change that benefits everyone who uses the power grid

It’s taken years to get here, but Labor’s election pledge to make household batteries cheaper is a significant step forward that should cut climate pollution and limit power price rises. While it has been criticised by some as a subsidy for the wealthy, it could drive a change that benefits everyone who uses the power grid, and not just those who can afford to put an energy storage unit in their garage.

Labor’s promise is that from July it will cut the cost of a typical household battery by about $4,000, or 30%. The discount will be delivered through a long-running small-scale renewable energy scheme that has helped make rooftop solar panels and hot water systems affordable for more people.

Sign up to get climate and environment editor Adam Morton’s Clear Air column as a free newsletter

Adam Morton is Guardian Australia’s climate and environment editor

Continue reading...
Categories: Climate

When sadness strikes I remember I’m not alone in loving the wild boundless beauty of the living world | Georgina Woods

The Guardian Climate Change - April 7, 2025 - 11:00

Nature will reclaim its place as a terrifying quasi-divine force that cannot be mastered. I find this strangely comforting

At times my work takes me to the big city and the tall buildings where people with power make decisions that affect the rest of us. While I am there, crossing busy roads, wearing tidy clothes and carrying out my duty, I think of faraway places where life is getting on without me.

Logrunners are turning leaf litter on the rainforest floor, albatross are cruising the wind beyond sight of the coast. Why does thinking about these creatures, who have no idea that I exist, bring me such comfort?

Get Guardian Australia environment editor Adam Morton’s Clear Air column as an email

Continue reading...
Categories: Climate

‘Flying is an act of surrender’: a new novel about a woman who wants to be ravished by an Airbus

The Guardian Climate Change - April 7, 2025 - 07:00

Kate Folk on Sky Daddy, a book about sex, death and plane crashes that’s taking off in these turbulent times

If we told our forebears that we could soar in the sky nearly seven miles above the ground, they would stare at us agog. But now air travel is one big grumble: it’s degrading, everyone is ill-mannered and you used to get free peanuts in this country, but now the peanuts are not free. Air travel, like everything else, is about the politics of resentment. The skies are feeling a lot less friendly, and that’s before you get to a year in which Americans have experienced profound tragedy in the air, as well as significant cuts to an already strained Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

In this turbulent time for flying lands Sky Daddy, the unusual debut novel by Kate Folk, a San Francisco author and screenwriter whose short story collection Out There was released in 2022. Sky Daddy is narrated by a woman called Linda who, like many of us, lives her life in dogged pursuit of love. She just wants that love to come from a commercial airplane in freefall. “I believed this was my destiny,” Linda tells us, “for a plane to recognize me as his soulmate mid-flight and, overcome with passion, relinquish his grip on the sky, hurtling us to earth in a carnage that would meld our souls for eternity.”

Continue reading...
Categories: Climate

Should I Replace My Gas Appliances With Electric?

NYT Global Warming Climate Change - April 7, 2025 - 05:01
They’re a big source of greenhouse gases. Here’s what to think about if you’re considering switching to electric.
Categories: Climate

We passed the 1.5C climate threshhold. We must now explore extreme options | Sir David King

The Guardian Climate Change - April 7, 2025 - 05:00

We do not have the luxury of rejecting solutions before we have thoroughly investigated their risks, trade-offs and feasibility

As a lifelong scientist, I have always believed that if something is possible, we can find a way to achieve it. And yet, one of the starkest realities we now face is that the world is failing to meet its climate goals. Last year marked a historic and deeply troubling threshold: for the first time, global temperatures exceeded 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Without drastic and immediate climate action, this breach will not be temporary. The consequences – rising sea levels, extreme weather and devastating loss of biodiversity – are no longer projections for the distant future. They are happening now, affecting millions of lives, and likely to cause trillions in damages in decades to come.

But we must think beyond our immediate horizons. When I read The Iliad, I am reminded that it was written 2,800 years ago. I often wonder: in another 2,800 years, what will people – if humanity as we know it still exists – read about our time? Will they see us as the generation that failed to act or one that made the choices necessary to safeguard the planet for the future?

Continue reading...
Categories: Climate

Labour: changes to EV rules will have ‘negligible’ impact on UK emissions

The Guardian Climate Change - April 7, 2025 - 04:44

Transport secretary says overhaul in response to Trump tariffs supports car firms and climate goals

Labour’s changes to electric vehicle (EV) rules in response to Donald Trump’s tariffs will have a negligible impact on emissions, the transport secretary has said.

Keir Starmer has confirmed plans to boost manufacturers, including reinstating the 2030 ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars.

Continue reading...
Categories: Climate

In 15 Years, 80,000 Homes in the New York Area May Be Lost to Flooding

NYT Global Warming Climate Change - April 7, 2025 - 03:00
The metro region’s housing shortage is acute. But by 2040, dozens of neighborhoods and suburbs are likely to have lost thousands of homes to floods, a new report found.
Categories: Climate

Is eating farmed salmon worth snuffing out 40m years of Tasmanian evolution? | Tim Flannery

The Guardian Climate Change - April 6, 2025 - 15:06

Without the strongest conservation efforts, it can’t be long before the Maugean skate – and other marine living fossils in Australia – are wiped out

Australia is justly famous as a place where ancient species, long extinct elsewhere, live on. After aeons of adversity, Australia’s living fossils often survive only in protected habitats: the Wollemi, Huon and King Billy pines, the Queensland lungfish and even the Tasmanian devil (which thrived on the mainland at the same time as the Egyptians were building the pyramids) are good examples. Such species are a source of wonder for anyone interested in the living world and they should serve as a source of hope that, given half a chance, even ancient, slow-changing species can survive periods of dramatic climate change.

Australia’s largest repository of living fossils is arguably the cool, shallow marine waters off its southern coastline. Despite that fact that most of us enjoy a swim, snorkel or walk on the beach, the biological importance of our shallow temperate seas is almost entirely unrecognised.

Continue reading...
Categories: Climate

Days of severe storms leave 18 dead as rising rivers threaten US south and midwest

The Guardian Climate Change - April 6, 2025 - 14:40

Power and gas shut off in regions as flooding worsens, threatening waterlogged and badly damaged communities

After days of intense rain and wind killed at least 18 people in the US south and midwest, rivers rose and flooding worsened on Sunday in those regions, threatening waterlogged and badly damaged communities.

Utility companies scrambled to shut off power and gas from Texas to Ohio while cities closed roads and deployed sandbags to protect homes and businesses.

Continue reading...
Categories: Climate