Climate

In heat waves, chemicals like formaldehyde and ozone can form more readily in the air, according to researchers driving mobile labs in New York City this week.

People all over the world are facing severe heat, floods and fire, aggravated by the use of fossil fuels. The year isn’t halfway done.

Scientists call for regulation to stop regional use of marine cloud brightening having negative impact elsewhere

A geoengineering technique designed to reduce high temperatures in California could inadvertently intensify heatwaves in Europe, according to a study that models the unintended consequences of regional tinkering with a changing climate.

The paper shows that targeted interventions to lower temperature in one area for one season might bring temporary benefits to some populations, but this has to be set against potentially negative side-effects in other parts of the world and shifting degrees of effectiveness over time.

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UN says finding funds to tackle climate crisis is ‘a steep mountain to climb’, as talks end with little agreement

• Key takeaways from the Bonn climate conference

Finding the finance needed to stave off the worst impacts of the climate crisis will be “a very steep mountain to climb”, the UN has conceded, as two vital international conferences failed to produce the progress needed to generate funds for poor countries.

With less than five months to go before the Cop29 UN climate summit in Azerbaijan in November, there is still no agreement on how to bridge the near-trillion dollar gap between what developing countries say is needed and the roughly $100bn a year of climate finance that flows today from public sources in the rich world to stricken developing nations.

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Global warming has led to more extreme weather earlier and later in the year, causing New Yorkers to rethink their relationship to the seasonal calendar.

Mainstream groups including National Trust and RSPB will join hunt saboteurs and direct action activists for first time

Crabs, badgers and scores of dragonfly wings will be among the fancy dress worn by thousands of people joining more than 350 environmental groups marching through London on Saturday to demand the next government does not “recklessly” ignore the nature crisis.

For the first time, mainstream organisations including the National Trust and the RSPB will stand beside hunt saboteurs and direct action activists in the Restore Nature Now march, as campaigners call on the next government to take “bold” steps to tackle the biodiversity crisis.

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They’ll be replaced in North America with paper packing, eliminating some 15 billion pillows a year. Plastic film is a major pollutant.

El calor extremo que se ha sentido en esta región del continente en mayo y junio fue 35 veces más probable debido al calentamiento global causado por el humano.

On-air meteorologists have become a target in the culture wars as they report on the effects of climate change.

The founder of the renowned Woods Hole Research Center in Massachusetts, he also helped shape U.S. policies on controlling toxic substances like DDT.

Rishi Sunak’s decision to side with climate deniers isn’t just wrongheaded: it’s costing our environment and our economy

In 2019, the UK became the first G7 country to legislate for net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. At the time, I was the cabinet minister who signed this into law. We did so knowing that taking action to tackle the climate crisis was supported by all the major political parties. We had no time to waste. It had been the Conservative party in opposition under David Cameron that had backed the Climate Change Act more than a decade earlier because we argued that climate action was more important than political divisions. As a result, the UK’s internationally renowned framework of carbon budgets has seen our emissions more than halve since 1990.

Britain has long been viewed as a clean energy leader across the world. We pioneered the first successful emissions trading scheme, followed by the contracts for difference model for funding renewable energy projects that made the North Sea into one of the largest windfarms in the world. A few weeks after delivering the net zero bill, I helped to secure the UK’s bid to host Cop26 in Glasgow. There, more than 80% of countries followed our lead and committed to a net zero target.

Climate and clean energy leadership has created jobs, growth and regeneration. The impact has been transformative. For the first time, wind power now makes up the largest source of our electricity. Coal, which used to make up more than 40% of our power when I was first elected as an MP in 2010, will from next year be consigned to the history books. Our economy has grown by 80% since 1990, and at the same time our emissions have halved. When I signed net zero into law, I always viewed our plan as a mainstream, even conservative, vision. One of the legacies of Cop26 is the growth in clean energy markets across the world. Elsewhere, the Inflation Reduction Act in the US and the green deal in Europe have committed to at least a decade of support for green industries.

Yet the UK now risks falling ever further behind in the net zero race. We have seen Rishi Sunak decide to prioritise new oil and gas expansion at a time when our fossil fuel industries are in rapid decline and will become stranded assets within decades. His decision to renege on net zero means the UK has scaled back on measures that would have saved households £8bn a year in lower energy costs. It has cost us the ability to lead in new technological markets and risks losing Britain the greatest economic opportunity in a generation.

Chris Skidmore is a former Conservative energy minister

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Macaques, reeling from a hurricane, learned by necessity to get along, a study found. It’s one of the first to suggest that animals can adapt to environmental upheaval with social changes.

Agricultural insecticides were a key factor, according to a study focused on the Midwest, though researchers emphasized the importance of climate change and habitat loss.

Politicians must raise their ambitions. The rising threat from high temperatures means the green transition cannot be delayed

There are voters for whom the climate crisis is the most pressing issue in this general election. But for most people, immediate cost of living pressures and concerns about the health service come first. Last week, more than 400 climate scientists wrote a letter to party leaders in which they said it was disappointing that global heating, and policies to tackle it, are not more prominent in the campaign. They called for much stronger action, including a clear path to net zero in 2050 and a halt to new fossil fuel development in the North Sea.

They are right that politicians should raise their ambitions. The disconnect between climate science and climate policy grows more and more alarming. Last month, a Guardian survey of hundreds of leading researchers found that 77% expect global temperatures to reach at least 2.5C above preindustrial levels – a dangerous level of heating pointing to massive disruption and conflict. A report this week revealed that last year saw the highest-ever fossil fuel consumption globally, as well as record wind and solar power generation.

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Heatwave leads to record daily highs in New York and Maine, as US south-west sees wildfires and excessive rainfall

The United States continues to suffer extreme weather as a heatwave baked millions across the upper midwest and north-east and a tropical storm soaked Texas and northern Mexico.

The National Weather Service said the heatwave was expected to peak in the eastern Great Lakes, New England, the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic over the coming weekend.

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Researchers analyzed a skull found in Montana of a plant-eating member of the ceratops family, finding distinct traits.

Experts predict major electricity price hikes if opposition proposal to slow rollout of large-scale renewable projects goes ahead

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Australians could face an increase in annual household power bills of up to $1,000 under a Coalition plan to slow the rollout of large-scale renewable energy and use more gas-fired electricity before nuclear plants are ready, analysts say.

As Peter Dutton faced cross-party resistance to his announcement that he would go to the next election promising to eventually build seven nuclear plants, energy market analysts warned the Coalition’s proposal would probably lead to a significant rise in prices over the next decade, before a nuclear industry came online.

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Extreme heat across parts of Central America and the Southern United States in May and early June was 35 times more likely because of human-caused global warming, according to a new report.

In an era when massive heat domes blanket large swaths of continents for days, wildfires burn through areas the size of small countries, and hurricanes regularly push the limits of what we once thought possible, sea level rise can seem like extreme weather’s low-key cousin. But with estimates suggesting that sea level rise will affect more than one billion people around the world in the next 25 years, this is one member of the dysfunctional climate change family that shouldn’t be ignored.

Why is this? Read on for the science you need to know about sea level rise, in seven parts.

1. Sea level rise is picking up speed

Globally, sea level is rising at more than double the 20th-century rate. Since 1901, global average sea level has risen at a rate of about 1.7 mm per year for a total rise of about 8 inches since that year. The pace of sea level rise since the start of the 20th century has been faster than at any point in the last 3,000 years.

As if that weren’t worrisome enough, studies show that it has been accelerating since the 1960s. Since 1993, sea level has risen by an average rate of 3.1 mm per year—just shy of double the 20th century average rate. And since 2006, it has been even faster: as high as 4.2 mm per year, according to recent estimates by NASA.

2. The primary cause of accelerating sea level rise is human activity

As people burn fossil fuels and emit heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide, our atmosphere and our oceans warm up. As the ocean warms, it expands. Historically, this was the dominant cause of sea level rise. But a warmer atmosphere and ocean also contribute to a loss of land-based ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) and glaciers (like those in Glacier National Park). That adds water to the oceans, which raises their level. This loss of land ice has been the dominant contributor to sea level rise since 2006.

Since the 1970s, global sea level rise has accelerated significantly and ice loss from glaciers and ice sheets has become the dominant contributor to the global trend. Source: IPCC AR6, WGI, Chapter 9, Cross-Chapter 9.1, Figure 1

Depending on how you slice it and what time period you’re looking at, at least 70% of global sea level rise since 1970 is attributable to human-caused climate change. A big chunk of the rise—roughly 30% since 1880 and roughly 10% since 1980—has been more directly attributed to heat-trapping emissions tied to the world’s largest fossil fuel producers and cement manufacturers.

3. Sea level rise along US coastlines is faster than the global average

Sea level rise rates vary significantly from region to region and even between locations in a given region. On average, sea level along the coastlines of the contiguous United States is rising more quickly than the global average.

Along much of the Eastern seaboard, for example, the pace and magnitude of sea level rise reflect both the global average and natural sinking—what scientists call subsidence—of the land. Much of that subsidence is happening for geological reasons. At the end of the last ice age, when the massive ice sheet that covered much of northern North America melted, much of the land sprung back up after having been pushed down by all that heavy ice for thousands of years. Like a spring bouncing up and down, the land is now sinking back down.

Along with the withdrawals of hydrocarbons, such as gas, human engineering has changed the amount of sediment flowing from rivers into the ocean. The settling of areas built on artificial fill has also contributed to land subsidence, land loss, and higher-than-average rates of sea level rise, particularly along the Gulf Coast. (Groundwater withdrawals globally have shifted so much water that it has affected the tilt of the Earth, but that’s another story!)

On average, over the 1993-2020 period, sea level has risen more quickly along the coastline of the contiguous United States than it has globally. Sea level rise rates are notably higher along the East and Gulf Coasts than they are on the West Coast. Source: Fifth National Climate Assessment, Figure 2.5. 4. Sea level rise is making storm surge more extensive and damaging

Storm surge is often the most damaging aspect of hurricanes, nor’easters, and other coastal storms. “Surge” happens when the winds generated by a storm system push surface water toward the coast over a long expanse of ocean. Depending on the size of the storm, that water can build into a large surge where sea water many feet deep overtakes coastal areas. More than simply the presence of water, though, surge is made more damaging by the excessive wave energy that typically accompanies it. The combination can lead to catastrophic conditions.  

Add higher sea levels and the threat is obvious: surge that can reach farther inland, bringing taller waves and causing greater destruction.

And when that destructive potential meets our increasingly- and often highly-developed coastline, disaster ensues.

Hurricane Sandy is a stark example of storm surge damage in a highly-developed region, made worse by rising seas. Scientists calculated the added economic damage inflicted on the region by the additional, climate-change driven water levels in 2012, and found that sea level rise caused an additional roughly $8.1 billion in damages (or approximately 13% of the $60 billion total) and affected approximately 71,000 additional people.

With 90 million people living along US coastlines and a coastal economy valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars, our nation is far too exposed to the “when,” not “if,” of storm surge damages.

Flooding from Hurricane Sandy’s storm surge in the New York City metropolitan area in 2012 affected 71,000 more people than it would have without human-caused sea level rise. Source: Metropolitan Transportation Authority. 5. But storm or no storm, higher seas mean high tide flooding

Whether or not a storm ever strikes our coasts again, water is coming inland, delivered by one of nature’s gentlest cycles: the daily tides. Tidal flooding is now expanding in reach and frequency, along all the coasts in the contiguous U.S.

The tides are caused primarily by the gravitational force of the moon, which essentially pulls a bulge of water toward it (while inertia creates a bulge on the opposite side of the Earth).

(Cool fact: we say that the tides rise and fall, but a more accurate way to think about it is that, as the Earth rotates through that ^^ bulge of water, we move into and pass out of those higher water levels. Cool, right?) But sticking with the language we know, tides rise and fall once or twice daily along coastlines around the world, with a smaller change in water levels closer to the equator, and greater change farther from it.

Take Charleston, South Carolina, as an example: the average difference between high and low tide is 5-6 feet. Twice a month, when the moon is full and new, it exerts a stronger gravitational pull on the oceans and the tides are higher and lower than normal. There are more variations caused when the sun, moon and Earth align, but suffice to say, some tides are higher than others. And because the sea level in Charleston has already risen roughly 16 inches since 1901, normal high tides are now flooding Charleston in disruptive ways and with increasing frequency.

Charleston is far from alone; in little more than a decade, elevated sea levels along all the coasts have turned this into a disruptive national phenomenon.  A 2019 UCS analysis, Underwater, found that Charleston can expect roughly 500 homes to flood on a chronic basis by 2035. The increasing reach and frequency of this flooding are inexorable; our agency lies in what we do to slow sea level rise and what we do to prepare the communities in its path.

When higher sea levels are added on top of the normal variations in tide height, the more extreme high tides can reach onto normally dry land. As sea level rises further, this occasional flooding can become chronic, as less extreme tides begin to cause flooding as well. Source: Union of Concerned Scientists. 6. We know more sea level rise is unavoidable. How much more is uncertain.

With sea level rise accelerating, where are we headed? The many dynamics that contribute to rising seas mean there is a significant amount of uncertainty about future increases. That said, we have much more certainty than just a few years ago about the likely increases a few decades from now. Projections for the likely amount of global average sea level rise through 2050 now range between 7.5 and 11.4 inches while projections for the average rise on US coastlines is somewhat higher at 12.6 to 17.7 inches.

Longer term, two particular drivers loom large, with significant uncertainty around each—resulting in significant uncertainty around late century increases.

Currently, the projected range of global average sea level rise is between 2 and 6.5 feet by 2100. Though the higher end of that range is presently considered unlikely, it’s vital to future generations that we appreciate that sea level rise will continue long after the end of this century. We are unleashing a long-term process where ocean levels will rise over many centuries, depending heavily on what we do in the near term.

There is wide range in possible sea level rise amounts late this century for a couple reasons. First, we don’t know how much more carbon dioxide, methane, and other heat-trapping gases humanity will emit in the coming decades. Second, we don’t know exactly how Earth’s systems—especially land-based ice—will respond to those future emissions. Potentially large contributions from Antarctica, in particular, are not yet well enough understood. But we don’t need to pinpoint the time of, for example, the Thwaites Glacier collapse to say with certainty that we face an enormous threat that must be slowed.

Observations show that sea level rise is accelerating both globally and, as shown here, along the coastlines of the United States. The amount of sea level rise projected by 2050 is largely dictated by past human emissions of heat-trapping gases and is therefore more certain. The amount of sea level rise the US will experience by 2100 is much less certain, as it depends on current and future global emissions choices and the response of Earth’s systems—particularly the response of large ice sheets—to those emissions. Source: Fifth US National Climate Assessment, Figure 9.1. 7. Now is the time to slow–and prepare for–sea level rise

Which brings us to the other primary source of uncertainty: our societal actions. Knowing what’s at stake, our leaders should be working with urgency to rein in emissions of the heat-trapping pollution that’s driving sea level rise. They should be working with urgency to enable communities, economic sectors, and whole nations to prepare for the increases that are inevitable and increasingly likely.

Collectively, coastal communities in the US and around the world face a massive deadline if we’re aiming to get ahead of the flooding that is coming our way. A deadline to prepare, protect, or move communities and their assets out of the ocean’s reach. A deadline that poorer communities and nations have done little to create and require resources of richer ones to meet.

Sea level rise is a tricky beast. At the rate of just a few millimeters per year, it’s easy to think that it’s a threat that won’t need to be dealt with for decades. But preparing, protecting, or moving the people, assets, communities, and economies located along the coast will be a massive, costly, sustained undertaking. As such, it needs to start now. But because sea level rise is just a few millimeters per year, if we start now and build flexibility into future planning and policies, it’s possible for coastal communities to meet this looming deadline.

In his new book, Tad DeLay suggests there is no rosy roadmap to go forward – but there are things we can do

You are in denial about the climate crisis. We all are, argues the American scholar Tad DeLay. Right-wing climate deniers are not the only ones with a problem, he says when we speak in early June after the release of his book, Future of Denial. For denial doesn’t only amount to rejecting the evidence, he argues – it also consists of denying our role in the climate crisis; absolving ourselves through “carbon offsets, hybrid cars, local purchases, recycling”. And in this, far more of us are implicated.

In some ways, this argument might not seem all that new. Multiple authors have pointed out that green capitalism, not rightwing deniers of the crisis, is our greatest obstacle to properly confronting the problem. DeLay agrees. The difference is the lens he brings to it – using psychoanalysis to explain the mechanisms behind denial.

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